High probability trading : take the steps to become a successful trader

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Yes, delivery can be arranged as shops offer various delivery methods. Trading Decisions You may also want to keep track of whether you made a good trading decision or not. Did you get out of a loser quickly? Did you exit too quickly? Did you follow your rules? Did you wait for a pullback? By repeatedly writing down what you did right and wrong, you will reinforce proper trading behavior in the future.

It makes it easier to point out any weaknesses you may have so that you can work to correct them. Keeping a journal is like taking class notes; it should be reviewed on a regular basis if it is to help. When you start reviewing your trading performance, you can begin to get on the right track. Every day I review my trades on my way home. I try to understand what I did wrong on the bad ones and what I did right on the good ones. Getting out of a losing trade quickly is a good trading decision to me.

But the trades I concentrate the most on are the ones on which I did something stupid. I kick myself in the head about them because I should know better. A mistake like holding on to a trade after my indicators have turned and giving back a lot of profits is a mistake that I prefer not to make again. Did the market give me a sign I should have noticed? Besides looking at my mistakes, I compliment myself when I trade smartly.

I got out of my trades and took a short walk outside to clear my head. When I came back, I was able to see the market more objectively. One of the reasons institutional traders succeed better than does the average trader is that they have much more capital behind them. When they screw up, it costs the firm virtually nothing compared to the mistakes of larger, more established traders.

As they get better, they are given more buying power and freedom. When I started trading equities, they told me that they expected all new traders to lose for the first 2 years. Those who come in planning to start making money immediately will be disappointed. During those 2 years traders learn how to trade. Afterward they are given limited share size and are forced to follow strict rules until they prove themselves. Only then are they given more share size, buying power, and the freedom to trade independently. The firm risks very little on these new traders during this period.

Major firms such as Goldman Sachs, Bear Stearns, and Merrill Lynch go to the top business schools around the country and offer the top students disgustingly large sums of money to enter training programs to become traders. The reason they take only these elite candidates is that these people are proven learners.

The firms figure these people will be easier to teach than someone who was only able to get into a mediocre graduate school with modest grades. I spent 3 years on the floor learning everything I could before stepping into the ring to trade. People should be realistic about their progress and plan on having enough capital to get them there.

They should not get discouraged if they lose their initial capital; instead, they should see it as a part of the tuition toward their ultimate goal—being a winning trader. It was his brother who got him started on the floor and fronted him capital to trade with. The second year started off badly as well, but he was able to turn it around and lose only a little. By the third year he started being a regular money-making machine. His tuition was expensive, but he stuck it out to become a great trader.

I pressed from The Tuition of Trading 21 the beginning and tried way too hard to become rich overnight. I was a bit overconfident when I started and thought I knew better than the people with experience who were kind enough to try to teach me. Yet they were consistent and made money all the time. I had to learn it for myself, and that cost me a lot of money. I may have done better if I had had all the money at once, but my money came out in a steady stream over a period of 7 years.

I was forced to do odd jobs, working nights and weekends, for years while I struggled as a trader. All the money I made on the side I would dump into the market only to see it quickly dwindle not because I was a bad trader but because I was always undercapitalized, which I guess makes me a bad trader who was trading against the odds.

I would trade well for a while and then hit a cocky streak and blow most of it in a week. People need to have enough capital to survive as they learn the ins and outs of trading. Traders can try to trade with a small account, but they need to have realistic expectations of how much can be made. They also must be prepared to blow out once or twice on the way to success. Preserving capital should be a bigger priority then making money. Mistakes are important; they happen to everyone, especially when one first starts trading.

ISBN 10: 0071381562

Keep a journal of your trades and review it constantly to identify strengths and weaknesses. By taking it slow you give yourself the chance to be around for the long haul. Ignoring the learning curve Being undercapitalized at the start Lacking working capital Lacking formal training Lacking schooling Lacking supervision Expecting success too soon Expecting large profits from the get-go Blowing out Things to Help You Survive While Improving Your Trading 1.

Take your time. Trade and think small. Pay your tuition of trading. Learn from every mistake. Let experience be your teacher. Make sure you have enough money to last. Preserve precious capital. Paper trade before jumping in. Keep a journal. Review your trades constantly. Be committed. Enjoy yourself. Why did I do what I did? What should I have done? How can I prevent it next time? Am I rationalizing each trade I make? Am I taking time to reflect on what I did wrong? Am I giving myself a little praise when I do something right?

He had just taken a course on how to become a millionaire trading commodities and thought he was ready to give it a try. He sent the same letter to a few other brokers as well, hoping to get the best deal. It went something like this: I am looking to start trading commodities in the next few weeks. After a few months, when I feel more comfortable, I will increase my trading volume so that I can begin to make more. As I do plan on trading a lot and making my own decisions, I am looking for a discount broker with good rates to just enter orders through.

The best hedge fund managers and professional 24 Copyright by Marcel Link. Setting Realistic Goals 25 traders are ecstatic when they achieve a 35 percent return for the year. You have never traded before, yet you think you can outperform these people by leaps and bounds. Yes, it can be done, but you fail to take into account the fact that you will have losing weeks as well. Your goal as a new trader should be to trade lightly and learn. You will be making quite a few mistakes along the way and might benefit from the guidance of a broker.

Once you are more comfortable with your trading, then by all means I recommend the cheapest rates available. He opened an account elsewhere and started trading online. Two months later he called me up to transfer his account to my firm; he had remembered what I wrote and liked my honesty. He learned the hard way about setting realistic goals. Six months later, after losing a little more, he gave up and went back to real estate full-time. He could have been a good trader, but he never gave himself the proper time to learn to trade.

Instead, he tried to make too much too soon and ended up losing most of his money before getting through the learning period. Eventually I found out that the road to Easy Street takes a lot of turns and is filled with detours, roadblocks, and potholes.

Thousands of people come here every month with the aspirations of breaking into and making it big in the acting, music, modeling, and designing industries; some even come here to make it on Wall Street. When I was first starting to trade, I worked in a restaurant as a waiter. I was surrounded by wannabe stars, models, actors, dancers, you name it, yet my dreams were even crazier: I was the only aspiring star trader. When it comes to setting goals, you have to be realistic no matter what the arena is.

Yes, it is possible and does happen on occasion, but for the few times it does, there are tens of thousands of traders who are going bust. By setting their sights lower, people may not make the millions they dreamed of but can end up doing just fine anyway. At those seminars he would tell people that only 10 percent of them would end up making money trading.

He told them that 90 percent of his clients end up losing and went through the reasons why. These people had just been told the plain truth about trading—that most of them would lose—yet none were realistic about it. Most people imagine or talk about the great possibilities of trading but not the realities. They all imagine that they will be the success stories, and no one expects failure even when told how good the chances of it are. When goals are ridiculous, one is only setting oneself up to be highly disappointed. Once someone starts to overtrade, the chances of surviving drop quickly.

Not only do such traders have to overtrade and take on too much risk, they have to achieve outrageous returns to get there, which in all honesty is hard to do. The longer one can stick around, the greater the chance to succeed becomes. Even then, they are asking for a percent annual return. When trying to do this with a small account you are asking for a 10, percent return.

Anyone who could do this would have Morgan Stanley knocking at his door offering an eight-digit salary to come work for them. The reason the pros succeed and can make millions is that they are trading with multi-million-dollar accounts and trying to make only a modest 20 to 35 percent per year. They do this by being more selective in their trades, looking to take out steady profits without trying to make a killing on any trades.

It happened in my second week, and after that it became my daily goal. I started trading other markets and was constantly looking for trades. I always had too much on, and it hurt me. Instead of setting goals at extreme levels, make them very modest and obtainable. It means you have to be margined to the hilt on every trade and consistently capture decent-size moves. Not only that, it comes out to a 50 percent return per week, which is rather ridiculous.

Setting small obtainable goals like this will definitely put you in the right direction. They assume they can consistently make the same amount every day and totally ignore the losing days. The reality is that they will probably have about the same number of losing days or more Setting Realistic Goals 29 as winning days, and the losing days can tend to be worse than the good days. The next thing you know, the trader ignores his original goal and tries to make double what he just lost on his bad day to keep on his schedule. Never try to make back losses. If you are going to have goals for winning days, you should also have goals for losing days, and those goals should be less than what you hope to make on a good day.

So what is the minimum amount someone should trade with?

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These minimum account sizes are sufficient to be able to margin oneself properly and survive the mistakes traders will make. The more you have, of course, the better your chances become. This is why the smaller the account is, the less likely it is that a trader will make money in the long run. Five thousand dollars is just too small to withstand a losing streak at the start. You can still trade but you will have to trade less often and in markets or stocks that are less volatile and look to make a lot less. There are several different levels where one can set goals, such as per market, wave, day, year, and length of learning curve.

You need to have realistic ideas on how much each market or stock can give you or cause you to lose on a trade. This applies to both day trading and taking on long-term positions. This can be done for any time period bars one looks at. For when the market gaps higher. For when the market gaps lower. This trade is most likely done at this point, and staying in to squeeze out every last penny from the trade is going against the odds. The smart traders are either covering or reversing at around this time, and the momentum may soon change.

A trader is better off missing the last leg of a move and getting out before the masses do than hoping it keeps going. If he waits too long and decides to exit after it turns, it may be too late and he will be scrambling to get filled as it gets away from him.


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The percentage play is looking to get out when the market is within 80 percent of the average daily range. Take a look at Chart 2—1. Those who are aware of how much it can move on a daily basis are in a better position to profit from it. You made the high probability trade by getting out, and in the long run you will be paid off by making the high probability trades. The average range of a market changes over time, and so you must constantly keep abreast of it. I like to look at the average of the last 5 and 10 days when determining the average true range of a market.

Once you have a rough idea of how much a stock or market can move, you can figure out what is realistic. Stop Looking for the Big One There will be times where something affects the market or stock and it has an extreme day, trading well beyond its normal range. A news-related move or a breakout of a technical level from which the market explodes can make a market move more than its normal range, but these days are the exceptions, not the norm. Many times I get caught up in the frenzy of the market and forget this.

Some days when the Dow Jones is falling hard and has dropped about points, I start thinking that this could be the big one, the day they talk about for years. I start loading up on the short side in hopes of a plus drop in the Dow. I end up losing big on these days because in reality there have been only a handful of really big days over the history of the market. Yet I think or hope it will happen every week. Ninety-nine percent of the time the market has reached its saturation point at these levels, and when I start thinking it looks like it can crash, it turns around. The market has reached its normal extreme, and the smart play is to do nothing unless the market strongly tells you to do something.

The ironic thing is that I wrote this section on the bus on my way to work this morning, and at lunchtime the market was down about points. I covered my shorts to practice what I preached, and sure enough, it collapsed, falling close to points for the one of the largest down days ever. Though I wished I had caught the whole move, I did the right thing by covering. I was able to get in later, after the market really showed weakness. Profit Goal Per Trade Besides knowing the average range of a market, a trader must remember that the market moves in waves.

Though soybeans may have an average range of 12 points a day, you are unlikely to capture it all in one quick move. Instead you can grab 5 points here, 4 there, and 2 a few other times. The best day traders try to hit a lot of singles in their trading and keep booking modest profits.


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  • Going for the smaller waves is safer and usually more profitable. Riding the Waves There is no simple formula to figure out the lengths of a typical wave, nor is there a hard formula; you just have to know the market you are trading. Different time frames, such as 5 minutes, 60 minutes, daily, and weekly, will have different size waves.

    They will change on days when there is more or less activity, and not each wave is the same in size. Profits should be taken based on what the market is willing to give, not on what a trader wants to make. The best way to get a feel for the lengths of the average wave is a combination of knowing the market, having a working knowledge of Elliott wave analysis, and using trendlines, channels, and oscillators to determine when the market is overbought or oversold. Chart 2—2 shows a 2-minute chart of AMAT, which has a daily average true range of about 4 points.

    It opened higher by about 2 points, and after about a half hour Point A it stopped going up and began selling off. At this point a great short had exhausted its move and turned into a good long for the rest of the day. The smart money knows what the range of the stock is and stops shorting the stock when it nears its ATR.

    Shortly after Point B it does try to break down again, but it stalls at Point C, and this is when the rally begins. On the down move from 10 a. Instead it stalled at the up arrows. The downwaves ranged from about one to two dollars, with about a buck and a half being the average. The upwaves were about three-quarters of a dollar. As the market rallied after Point C, it did so in waves similar to the ones on the way down.

    The reason for these waves is that day traders are taking their profits after getting a quick move. One thing that makes day trading hard is that it takes 30 minutes for a stock to drop a point but only 10 minutes for it to pop up three-quarters of a point. When trading waves I use stochastics and a stall in momentum to help time my entries and exits.

    You can see in Chart 2—2 that the up and down arrows are aligned with the turning points in the stochastics indicator below. All the market is, is a function of what all traders are thinking the price should be. If they all expect to take profits after a drop of a point and a half, one must be realistic and might as well take profits also. If one stays in through the waves, one will see a dollar profit become a quarter-dollar profit and may be scared to lose on the trade and take it then, only to reshort it 5 minutes later when the stock continues to go down.

    Otherwise I get chopped up and pay too much in commissions. By getting in and out of waves, one can keep taking profits and be out of the market when it reverses. For Longer-Term Traders The same goes for long-term trades. Markets rarely move straight in one direction without having pullbacks and waves.

    Like intraday charts, long-term charts have trendlines and oscillators that can help a trader exit a trade before suffering a pullback. You can begin to look for a new and better entry point into the trade in the next few days if it backs off a bit. Many traders see a stock near the top of a channel and automatically think it will break out.

    Chart 2—1 shows how a stock moves in waves. In the first half of the chart, when AMAT fell from to 40, every time it looked like it would crack down, it had upwaves of 10, 15, or 25 points. People who shorted this at the wrong time were hurting. In the latter part of the chart, when it became range-bound, there were several times when it looked like it would break out, but each time it changed direction and started a new wave.

    Those who waited for the bounces or pullbacks to enter would have fared better than did those who rushed in. Some selfimprovement goals are described below. Work on Your Weaknesses Everyone has unique weaknesses that keep him from being the best he could be. This is really two goals, not one. The first one is to find your weaknesses, and the second is to fix them. Throughout this book when you find something that pertains to one of your weaknesses, make a note of it and concentrate on changing it. Learn from Mistakes Mistakes are part of trading. Learning from your mistakes should be high on your list of goals and one of the things you should strive for.

    You will make mistakes throughout your trading career. If you can keep from making the same mistakes over and over, you will improve dramatically as a trader. Be reasonable about losses in a stock or commodity. A loss of 50 to 75 cents is more reasonable. People who lose more than 5 percent at any given time are risking too much and setting themselves up for failure.

    Try to keep losers to under 2 percent of your equity, the lower the better. Preserve Precious Capital One of your goals should be to not lose your money. You want to be around in a few years, so do what you can to make sure you will have money then. The best way to do this is to concentrate on not losing money. Forget about making money; your goal should be not to lose it. If you can achieve this, you will be in a good financial position when you become a good trader.

    Stop Chasing the Market This is one area where beginners get hurt easily. They see a big move in a market, get excited about it, and then buy it as it is still moving up or short it as it is dropping. You have to be realistic about just how much it can move in a straight line. Even when a stock is flying, it will still retrace, and the harder it rallies, the stronger the retracement will be.

    You need to wait for the market to stop going up and either consolidate or pull in before getting onboard. Otherwise you have a good chance of buying the highs and getting caught in a retracement that may shake you out. There will be another trade another day. By learning to wait for a pullback, you will improve your chances of success as you cut back on trades that hurt you. They could do no wrong in that period and unfortunately got a little too cocky and paid dearly in late and They never developed any money management skills or realistic ideas of what a stock should do.

    Yet people were beginning to think this was normal. When the market finally got realistic, those people lost much of the money they had put into the market. Those folks learned the hard way that trading is not as easy as it looks, and that one should have realistic goals even when the market is not acting realistically.

    Eventually every trend will end, and traders need to be realistic about it when it happens by covering or even taking the other side. What should I do? Action should have been taken months ago, when the stock was overvalued. During the first couple of years the overall goal of a trader should not be to make x amount of dollars; it should be to still have enough capital to be trading with after that time is over with; making money will come on its own.

    When going into trading one should be aware of this.

    High Probability Trading - Take The Steps To Become A Successful Trader hardcover

    Even if a trader starts off with a bang, he is not necessarily a good trader. He has yet to experience a bad streak, and when he does, he may be overextended and lose his profits quickly. Many people start out thinking they will be able to support themselves right away and end up not having enough money to survive.

    It Setting Realistic Goals 39 took me years to be able to support myself from trading alone. During most of my early career I had to constantly work nights and weekends to support my trading habit. I drove a New York City yellow cab, started a limousine car service company, waited tables, did income taxes at an accounting firm, and played guitar in a few bands. Being Realistic about Failure Finally, you have to be realistic about the possibility of failure.

    Although everybody goes into trading with aspirations of making money and a positive attitude is essential in doing so, people should be aware that failure is a good possibility. About 90 percent of traders will fail, and the more honest you are about those numbers, the easier it is to avoid falling into that category. To succeed, one should be no less serious than any other individual who starts and owns a business.

    When starting a business one should always make sure to have enough capital to see it through properly. No one expects a new venture to turn a profit right away. Without sufficient start-up and working capital any business is likely to fail.

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    Even before the doors open and income starts coming in, there are bills to pay. It takes time to develop a steady cash flow and establish oneself, no matter what the business is. Yet traders expect to make a profit from the get-go. Most businesses that fail do so within the first 2 years, with the overwhelming reason being undercapitalization. In addition to capitalization, decisions should be made carefully. A smart businessperson would see if any competitors had them, determine the demand for them, and see if the markup and potential profits were worth the cost of taking on the extra inventory, not to mention determining whether the space in the store could be used for a better purpose.

    After taking all these things into consideration, he might make a decision about whether to invest in the new line of jeans. He wants to avoid any hit-or-miss situations if possible. If he misses the first stage of a fad, he knows he can always buy them later, if the demand is established and the risk of investing in them is reduced.

    More so than in any other business, trading involves risk and should be taken with the utmost seriousness. When one is trading, every trade should be made with the thought of running a business. As a businessperson, a trader should have the goal of making the decisions that will lead him to make the most money possible with the least risk. If a trader cannot separate trading as a business from trading for the thrill of the action, he should go to a casino and play craps; the results will be the same.

    Unfortunately, some people are too caught up in the excitement of trading rather than focusing on working to make themselves better traders. Only when a person starts treating trading like a real business, and not just a means of entertainment, can he begin to be more objective. Something very few new traders do that could help them immensely is to make a business plan, just as if they were going into any other business.

    A business plan is not easy and can be time-consuming, so I understand why few traders do it; however, if people took the time to do it, it would help them. A business plan for a trader is similar to a disclosure document that a Commodity Trading Adviser or Commodity Pool Operator would use to raise money. It has all the same ingredients Setting Realistic Goals 41 a business plan would have in any other field. Making one with the idea that you are trying to persuade other people to give you money will help you realize all the costs and factors, big and small, that go into trading.

    It will let you begin to treat trading with the seriousness it deserves. You will see just how hard it is to achieve unrealistic returns. It will help you figure out exactly how much money one needs and what every possible risk involved is. You should clearly spell out all your trading ideas, your parameters, what the potential is, and any problems that could arise. Doing all this will let you see all the risks involved and what your goals should be instead of setting them too high. Instead of making a business plan a trader should make a trading plan. One of my clients had a friend who wanted to try trading.

    After his check cleared, I called him to tell him he was ready to go. I tried hard to dissuade him. As we were on the phone, it went down even farther and he was convinced that it would bounce, so he canceled his stop and insisted on buying a second contract. After a 2-second rally the market continued to drop. Then of course the market rallied hard. He told me he would wire more money and bought two contracts instead of one.

    As soon as he did that, the market went straight down, this time even harder than the first time. My advice was to get out and take the losses, but he was too shell-shocked to do so. Eventually I had to liquidate his positions for him. By the time everything was said and done, he had lost practically all his money, and this was his first day of trading.

    He had not been realistic about what could happen, and it cost him dearly. He had never done his homework, had no idea of risk or of what the market was capable of doing, and traded well beyond his means. He closed his account the next day and never traded again. I risked much more per trade than I should have, as I was willing to lose the same amount as a guy who had 10 times as much money as I had. I ended up losing because my expectations were too high and were impossible to meet. I had to overtrade constantly to try to reach my goals, and it never worked in the long run. Another mistake I made was repeatedly ignoring how much a market could move and thinking it would go forever the stronger it got.

    I gave back many good trades because I was not Setting Realistic Goals 43 realistic about taking profits. It took some time to learn how to be more realistic when it came to taking profits and losses, but after watching good traders repeatedly do it, I was able to get the hang of it. Even though I still believe that I should let profits ride, I do it realistically; in the past I would just let them ride into losers. I stopped trying to make more than I should, and even though my best days now are comparatively smaller than they used to be, I have more good days and a lot fewer really bad days.

    Learn how the markets you trade react and what you can expect to make on them. You will become a better trader by having the proper capital to succeed or the proper expectations with the capital you have. It also means understanding how long it takes to achieve success and the possibility of failure; blowing out is always a possibility, but it is something one can learn from if one is committed to being a trader.

    Though it is always important to be realistic, to be a better trader you have to believe that you are the best trader on earth and keep envisioning that every day. The major reason people end up as losers is that they attempt to trade with insufficient capital. People end up being losers not because they are bad traders but because they are undercapitalized to get through any rough patches. Top hedge fund managers and professional traders, on the other hand, are glad when they make a 35 percent return for the year. If you set realistic and easy-to-achieve goals, you will find that you will become a better trader.

    Not believing they can lose Overtrading Risking too much Shooting for the stars Being disappointed and discouraged Blowing out Expecting a stock to triple every year Having an unpleasant personal life Things to Help You Become Realistic 1. Keep your goals modest. Remember that not every day will be a winner. Trade with more money. Know the average true range. Know the average length of a wave. Stop looking for the big one. Look for smaller returns. Put in your time and gain experience. Learn from mistakes. Keep losses small. Remember to stay realistic even when the market is not.

    Treat trading like a business. Make a trading plan. Helpful Questions to Ask Yourself Are my goals reasonable? Are my expectations of the trade reasonable? Am I being realistic? See other items More See all. Item information Condition:. Redeem your points Conditions for uk nectar points - opens in a new window or tab. No additional import charges on delivery. This item will be sent through the Global Shipping Programme and includes international tracking.

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